Chris Cillizza Reviews Top 2008 Senate Races

Friday Senate Line: More and Less of the Line - July 18, 2008

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/07/friday_senate_line_7.html

With the vice presidential sweepstakes heating up (we are t-minus one month -- or so -- before the choices are announced), The Fix is ramping up our Line.

From now until the vice presidential picks are made, we are doubling our pleasure: the traditional Line (Senate, House and battleground states) on Friday mornings and a BONUS veepstakes Line every Friday afternoon -- what better way to get ready for the weekend than boning up on the vice presidential jockeying!

Since we are doing two Lines every Friday, each one will be somewhat more brief. (Mrs. Fix is a once-in-a-lifetime woman and we don't want to push our luck!)

As always, the top ranked race on the Line is the most likely to switch sides in the fall. And, the Line is meant as a conversation starter so if you disagree (or agree) with our ratings, feel free to sound off in the comments section.

To the Line (part 1)!

10. Minnesota (R): Entertainer Al Franken (D) has had a dismal last few months in his race against Sen. Norm Coleman (R), and polling reflects it. The most recent survey conducted in the contest put Coleman ahead 52 percent to 39 percent. That might be a bit on the high side but even Democrats acknowledge Franken has work to do. Franken has put together a solid campaign team but needs to right the ship -- and quick. (Previous ranking: 9)

9. North Carolina (R): Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) is in the race of her political life against state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) but the incumbent's recent flight of ads helped solidify her lead a bit. Still, Hagan showed her fundraising ability over the last three months -- $1.5 million raised! -- and significantly narrowed Dole's cash-on-hand edge. National Democrats believe strongly in their chances here as evidenced by the nearly $6 million in ad time they have reserved. (Previous ranking: 8)

8. Mississippi (R): The Magnolia State moves up the Line this week as strategists on both sides of the aisle are now conceding this one is going to be a barn burner. Former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) is far better known than appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R) statewide but Wicker has a big cash edge and will be able to make up ground in the name identification fight quickly. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is now up with ads in Mississippi -- unwilling to cede the airwaves to Wicker. Never forget: this is a special election so neither Musgrove nor Wicker will have any party affiliation on the ballot, a fact that almost certainly accrues to Democrats' benefit. (Previous ranking: 10)

7. Louisiana (D): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) continues to run a solid campaign -- steadily stockpiling millions of dollars and now on television with an ad that casts her as "fighter" for the state. Democrats seem entirely too dismissive of state treasurer John Kennedy (R), however, who continues to impress on the fundraising front. Remember that Landrieu, despite running against two very weak Republican opponents in 1996 and 2002, never topped 52 percent of the vote. This one is going to be close. (Previous ranking: 7)

6. Oregon (R): Sen. Gordon Smith's (R) recent ad touting his ties to Barack Obama reeks of desperation. And yet, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley barely eked by in what was supposed to be a coronation primary. The $1.4 million Merkley raised over the last three months combined with the fact that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is now on the air and Democratic campaign guru Paul Johnson has been brought in to help all suggest this race could move up the Line in the coming months. (Previous ranking: 6)

5. Alaska (R): It's getting more gloomy by the month for Republicans in the Last Frontier State. Not only did Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) outraise Sen. Ted Stevens (R), a former chairman of the Appropriations Committee, by $250,000 over the past three months but the ethics scandal that has devastated the state GOP shows no signs of abating. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. New Hampshire (R): Former governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) has established a steady and solid high single digit/low double digit polling lead over Sen. John Sununu (R). Sununu, however, ended June with $5 million in the bank compared to $2 million for Shaheen. This one is going to get closer but Shaheen is still the favorite. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Colorado (R): For months, The Fix insisted that former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) would be a better candidate than Democrats believed. Or not. Schaffer has lurched from one problem to the next over the last few months while Rep. Mark Udall (D) just continues to stay out of the way. A Quinnipiac/washingtonpost.com/Wall Street Journal poll put Udall ahead 48 percent to 38 percent. That seems about right. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. New Mexico (R): At the end of June, Rep. Tom Udall (D) had $2.9 million in the bank. Rep. Steve Pearce, who did have to spend heavily to beat Rep. Heather Wilson in the Republican primary in early June, had $533,000. In a cycle where national Republicans are in no position to come to Pearce's financial rescue this one is looking more and more like a done deal every day. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Virginia (R): Let the betting begin: How high can former governor Mark Warner (D) go in his race against former governor Jim Gilmore. We are setting the bar at 60 percent. Whose betting the over? (Previous ranking: 1)

Chris Cillizza
"The Fix"
The Washington Post
chris.cillizza@washingtonpost.com